March 2, 2009

• Perceptions about Democrat, Republican strengths change

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. - A study by UAB political scientist Holly Brasher, Ph.D., in the latest issue of Party Politics shows historically how public perceptions about political party strengths change over time.

"A popular president, or a popular presidential candidate, has a strong ability to persuade the public that his party is the more capable party," said Brasher. "Also, objective conditions - specifically the economy - matter." Brasher says the current economic crisis is a perfect example. "If the economy improves, then the party in power is perceived to be more capable when it comes to the economy. That is a real incentive to get results and have policies that work"

The economy, historically, has been seen as a Republican strength, Brasher said.

"President Obama's work on the economy will have an impact on what people think of the Democratic Party in general," Brasher said. "If the stimulus package is successful and the economy begins to turn around, the Democratic Party will be rewarded and the public will view the Democrats as better able to handle the issue of the economy than the Republicans."

Bush's "No Child Left Behind" legislation, on the other hand, helped Republicans gain credibility with the public on education over the Democrats, Brasher said.

In her study, Brasher examined Gallup, Harris and other polls from the 1950s to 2004 on presidents, Congress and political parties' credibility on issues like education, taxes and the economy.

Brasher found that significant changes in the public's perception of political parties' abilities occur when there is a strong display of leadership on an issue by a president or presidential candidate, when a party governs successfully and when there is divided-party control with one party controlling Congress and the other the White House - allowing the controlling party in Congress to counter the president's leadership and speak authoritatively for alternatives.