January 27, 2009

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. - On Jan. 27, the National Retail Federation released its 2009 economic forecast projecting that retail industry sales will fall 0.5 percent overall from last year. The report projects a 2.5 percent sales loss for the first half of 2009 before sales move into positive territory in the fourth quarter of the year. UAB marketing instructor Mickey Gee believes Tuesday's report is the first in 30 years to forecast a sales decline.

"This is something we already knew," said Gee, who also runs his own Birmingham based retail shop. "Consumer attitudes toward spending soured last year, and this report shows that those attitudes are expected to continue well into this year."

Gee said the report is troubling news for retailers coming off the worst U.S. holiday shopping season in decades, because it predicts badly needed relief for stores is still months away.

"Another six to eight months of sales declines could be too much for many store chains, and this is very sobering news for them," Gee said.